Scenario 1:This is simply what l Carrolwould need to hit in order to reach a .230 BA and .680 OPS. Notably, both those numbers are below league average, but at this point, expectations must be dialed down. Carroll would need to hit .250 with a .748 OPS the rest of the way to get to that lowered expectation.
Scenario 2:I then decided to check the Fangraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season, or ROS projections. That is derived from averaging two projection system’s outputs, ZiPS and Steamer, and applying a playing time projection. By sheer coincidence, the FGDC ROS projection is almost exactly the same as the “needs” numbers I arrived at.
Scenario 3: ATC ROS is another set of projections that can be found at Fangraphs, and often rates as one of the more accurate systems, so I provided those numbers as well. They also happen to be the most optimistic set of projections.
Summary
Carroll would need to hit significantly better from here on out just to raise his batting line to a league average level, and even that may be too much to expect. The damage is done in terms of the 2024 numbers that will go on the back of his baseball card.
That doesn’t mean Carroll can’t or won’t be a valuable and contributing member of this baseball team. He’s playing good defense, still runs the bases as well as any player in the league, and certainly still has the talent and athleticism to improve at the plate.
Five days ago I asked the question of whether in the order and Carroll be moved back down the order. Torey Lovullo clearly feels that is not the way to go, and for now at least he’ll likely continue to put Carroll first or second in the order. If he can get his OBP over .330 the rest of the way, he’ll be an asset there, even if the power doesn’t come.
